I searched the online websites of the five biggest daily newspapers in the United States to find the last time the war in Sudan received primary coverage in an article:
The Wall Street Journal, July 2, 2024: “Militia Opens New Front in Sudan War, Deepening Famine Fears.”
The New York Times, June 27, 2024: “At Least 750,000 on Brink of Starvation and Death, Experts Warn.”
USA Today, April 29, 2024: “Every Two Hours, a Child Dies in Sudan. Our Global Silence is Deafening.”
The Washington Post, July 11, 2024: “UN Envoy for Sudan Hosts Talks on Issues of Aid, Protection of Civilians in War-Torn Country.”
The Los Angeles Times, April 15, 2024: “World Donors Pledge More Than $2 Billion in Aid for War-Stricken Sudan.”
While this likely reflects the state of a struggling news media unable to cover all newsworthy events, it also highlights the fact that some conflicts in the world get attention while others do not.
The age-old question remains: “Does the media create public interest or does public interest inform the media?”
The answer, while complex, will not be the focus of this discussion. However, I would be remiss not to mention that many in the West are not interested in conflicts involving people who do not look like them and where they have little to no connections.
In short, most of the world is unaware of the devastation occurring in Sudan.
What’s Going on in Sudan?
Since April 15, 2023, Sudan has been engaged in a great civil war. The combatants are fighting for control of the state government and the nation’s resources. The result of the war, according to the UN, is one of the greatest humanitarian crises in recent history, and few people are aware of it.
On one side is the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. They are the official military of Sudan and control northern and eastern Sudan.
On the other side is the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by Hemeti. They are a paramilitary group controlling most of western Sudan, including the capital Khartoum.
The war was partially caused by the internationally backed Framework Agreement. This agreement aimed to merge the SAF and RSF into one army as part of broader democratic reforms. However, both sides feared that the merger, which required both sides to give up power, would make each side weaker.
The SAF and RSF were not always enemies. In 2019, President Omar al-Bashir, who ruled Sudan for nearly 30 years, was overthrown by a popular uprising. The citizens wanted to establish a democracy. However, by 2021, the burgeoning democracy was toppled by al-Burhan and Hemeti in a coup. They tried to share power, but tensions led to the war.
Foreign State Interactions
The conflict has been isolated to Sudan’s boundaries, but other states are becoming connected to this war.
Some opportunistic states are selling arms and other materials to the combatants. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) supports the RSF. Planes and other war materials have been identified as coming from the UAE, violating arms embargoes. Russia supports the SAF because the SAF has stated they would allow Russia to set up a naval base in Port Sudan. Iran is linked to both the SAF and RSF because both sides have been identified using Iranian drones on battlefields. This also violates arms embargoes.
Other states are affected by displaced refugees fleeing for their lives. 11 million people have been forced to flee their homes or have completely left Sudan. Many of Sudan’s neighboring states are overwhelmed with Sudanese fleeing in fear of their lives. According to the UN, as of March 2024, 500,000 have fled to Egypt, 565,000 to Chad, and 609,000 to South Sudan. These neighboring countries are not completely stable themselves and cannot sufficiently support such a large influx of refugees at once.
Death Toll and Other Negative Outcomes
Internally, the state is near failure. Over 70% of Sudan’s healthcare system has collapsed, with diseases spreading. Half of the country, 25 million, are facing acute food insecurity. Many are expected to die.
It’s difficult to ascertain the total casualties of this war, but it’s estimated that 45,000 people have died. However, other credible sources put the dead between 10,000 and 150,000.
Both sides are engaged in reciprocal killings of each other and citizens. The RSF is ethnically targeting Sudanese minorities because they believe they are inferior.
Recent History
As the civil war enters its second year, the stalemate continues. Few people see a clear way for this conflict to end. Even fewer see the possibility of a democratic transition. The citizenry favors democracy, but both sides are not stepping down.
The United States wants the war to end and help bring about a democratic and constitutional transition. U.S. Special Envoy Tom Perriello says that Sudan faces two choices: one choice is “famine and the possibility of a failed state,” and the second choice is “peace and a democratic future.”
Some international organizations want the greater international community to support the Sudanese people by backing Sudanese movements on the ground that want to overthrow both sides. The majority of Sudanese citizens dislike both groups.
Others view the former Prime Minister, Abdalla Hamdok, as a legitimate alternative to either side. However, Hamdok resigned in 2022 due to a lack of support. Many of his opponents did not think he was a strong leader because he could not control the violent military forces. While he is clearly a better alternative to the SAF and RSF, he may not have the support necessary to maintain a steady government.
This Will Spread
This problem is primarily constrained to Sudan and the neighboring states. Displaced Sudanese refugees are fleeing to neighboring states in numbers that are difficult for any country to absorb. Additionally, many of the neighboring states, like Libya, are unsafe themselves and are not welcoming to refugees.
However, there is no reason to believe Sudanese refuges will be constrained to Africa. A large number will leave Africa and will try to enter Europe. At this time, Europe, and quite frankly the world, are having difficult conversations about immigration, border security, and changing ethnic demographics. Immigration has become a growing concern in Europe, providing ammunition to right-wing political parties who argue against changing demographics.
2.7 billion dollars is needed to meet this year’s UN Sudan Humanitarian Response plan, and with half the year finished, only 18% has been funded, with the United States contributing 30% of that 18%. It seems unlikely this goal will be met.
It is in the world’s interest to bring an end to this conflict. The war is killing and displacing thousands of people. Additionally, the Sudanese are on the edge of famine, which will bring the death of even more thousands of people.This conflict will not remain in Africa. The effects, as seen through large groups of refugees moving, will be felt in Europe. Soon, Europe and the rest of the world will not be able to ignore this crisis because the effects will be on th